Run Production, Part I

Last night, the Twins notched 14 hits, including 3 homers, took 3 walks and landed two men on base through a Tigers error on their way to a 9-3 victory over Detroit.

They also left 8 men on base, which is fine when you get 19 runners. It is not fine when you get, say, 10 runners and a double play, which is what happened to the Twins with stunning regularity all season. Hitting isn't enough (and they didn't exactly do a crapload of hitting to begin with); you have to bring the runners home.

Let's take a gander at some numbers (rankings are AL only, so it's #th out of 14, and BR=baserunners) for the season thus far:

H	BB	XBH	SB	SO	CS	GIDP	BR	LOB	LOB %
1305	430	396	89	885	42	132	1787	991	55.45%
11th	7th	13th	5th	8th	11th	13th	8th	n/a	14th

Please note that BR and therefore LOB does not include runners who reached on an error--I wasn't able to locate that stat and I'm not about comb through every last box score to find them all!

Now, the major components of run production are 1) getting runners on, 2) advancing runners around the bases and 3) preserving baserunners until they can score. Hits and walks get runners on. Extra-base hits greatly increase your chances of scoring by simultaneously creating and advancing runners. Stolen bases advance runners, while strikeouts generally do not, and double plays and getting caught stealing eliminate runners already present.

Note that the Twins are about average in walks, strikeouts and total baserunners, but lagging badly in hits and extra-base hits. They've been simply atrocious about grounding into double plays. They're getting a lot of stolen bases, but offsetting them with far too many failed attempts. The combination of too few baserunners and too few means of advancing them has caused our boys to strand more of their runners than any other AL team.

I knew just from watching this season that we'd be near the bottom, but seeing that "14th" pop up still made me cringe.

Some would say (and I'm inclined to agree) that the best way to win a game is to start out right. Here are the first inning run-production numbers:

H	BB	XBH	SB	SO	CS	GIDP	BR	LOB	LOB %
143	51	43	8	81	5	18	194	103	53.09%
12th	4th	13th	8th	2nd	6th	14th	10th	n/a	12th

Hmmm. Interesting. The first thing that grabs me is the lack of strikeouts, but then I remember that our 1-3 hitters usually include Stewart and Mauer, and all becomes clear. Our stolen base success ratio is abysmal in the first inning; that sure doesn't help, nor do all those [censored] double plays. They do take a lot of walks, but again--Stewart, Mauer, 'nuff said. Otherwise, the first inning comes out looking very similar to the overall performance.

One area the Twins have had a lot of success is in extra innings. They have more extra-inning appearances than any other AL team, and have won almost 2/3 of them. The staff ERA of 2.89 in extras certainly has something to do with that, but you still have to score some runs. Did the Twins do a better job of moving and scoring their baserunners, or are we looking at a situation where the excellent pitching held down the opposition long enough for the bats to finally do something?

H	BB	XBH	SB	SO	CS	GIDP	BR	LOB	LOB %
51	27	17	3	34	1	2	78	45	57.69
1st	1st	1st	3rd	14th	9th	11th	1st	14th	6th

Don't read too much into some of these rankings--keep in mind they had more chances than anyone else! But I have to say, having your walks total more than half your hits is impressive--unless of course you choose to fault the hitting rather than praise the walking.

The LOB % is what we're really concerned with here. On the one hand, they're doing a lot less of it than many other teams in extra innings. On the other, they're doing more of it than they do in regulation, and they've been really bad in regulation. I'm inclined to call it a wash--the other team's pitching staff is bearing down harder, and so are our hitters, but not to any significant extent. The majority of the praise for our extra-inning successes will have to go to our pitchers.

So what's the core problem, here? I think it comes back to fundamentals.

• Know when to swing and when to take a ball.
• Remember that the hitter's first duty with runner(s) on and less than 2 outs is to advance the runner(s). Reaching base himself should be of secondary concern.
• Correctly identify stealing opportunities, and know how to capitalize.

While we'd all like to see them reduce their caught-stealing incidents, that's the least of their worries now. The first fundamental is probably the most important for these Twins, who have as a group been swinging at lousy pitches with wild abandon all season. The second is vital, too--swinging for the fences when you're no home-run hitter (and most of these boys are no home-run hitters) is counterproductive to the point of idiocy. I laud their desire to come through for the team, but I deplore the means many of them choose.

I wonder if Paul Molitor would like to hang around after spring training next year?

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Sticking the Fork In

Alas, for the season that might have been.

Recall, if you will, just a few of the bright hopes with which we entered April:

a division championship four-peat

a 40-homer season for our new first baseman

an ROY award for our new shortstop

another Cy Young for our ace

another delicious set-down of the Whine Sox

a World Championship

And while the Cy Young is not out of the question, the others are realistically (if not yet mathematically) out of our reach.

Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth commence.

----------[five minute intermission]----------

Okay, now stop that.

We've spent Septembers knowing we weren't going to the playoffs before, if you'll recall, and not all that long ago, either. Just because there will be no postseason in Twinsland does not render the rest of the season meaningless.

Take a good long look at the September call-ups. Unlike the last few years, we'll actually get to, because we're not worried about keeping the regulars in top playing form. They've got the whole offseason to work out, after all.

Consider next season: Who will be leaving? Jones? Lohse? Mays? Hunter, perhaps, in a trade? Rivas, please? Who might we acquire, and at what cost?

And most importantly--what can the team (coaches, players and front office) learn from the hideous cluster**** this season has turned into? This leads us into the question of what went wrong in the first place (to put us in the third place--ha! Okay, not so funny...), and toward that end I'm chewing on some geekish data for future posts. But for now, let's just work on remembering that there's still something to cheer for.

And don't forget to root against the damn Yankee$, who could actually (Can it be true? Let it be true!) join our Twins in going home after 162, for once.

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Weekend Catblogging

Smile for the camera!
Tolie (left) and Poo (right)


Poo explores the delights of the CatSitter DVD.
Moments after this photo was taken, she fell off the chair while attacking the TV screen.

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Hockey, Baseball and Points In Between

Last night, we (TBL, Mr. TBL, and our buddy PuckHead) headed across the river to watch the Saint Paul Saints take on the Gary (Indiana) South Shore RailCats in Game 2 of Round 1 of the Northern League Playoffs.

(Yes, Virginia, there IS playoff baseball in Minnesota this year!)

En route, we were afforded--and seized!--the chance to meet Wild goaltender Dwayne Roloson, who is just about the nicest guy this side of the international date line. Asked about the new, smaller goalie pads which are being implemented this year, "Roli" displayed a mightily bruised and, it turns out, broken finger which was injured as a result of insufficient coverage by the new-length blockers.

Note to the NHL--we fans wanted the pads to be narrower, not shorter. Leaving goalies' body parts exposed was not supposed to be part of the deal, guys...

We arrived at Midway Stadium halfway through the anthem and proceeded to our sweeeeet front-row seats. We were surprised and pretty much appalled by how empty the stadium was, especially considering how hard it was to get tickets to the last ten or so regular-season games there.

Having such excellent seats inspired me to bring my trusty digicam, so here are a few images from the game.


Saints starting pitcher Mike Meyer


Meyer again. Looks good, doesn't he? But appearances deceive, as Meyer gives up nine runs (seven earned) in four innings of work.


Saints third base coach (and former Twins shortstop) Jackie Hernandez, who rumor has it spends the offseason entirely on horseback.


A straight-ahead shot from our ten-dollar seats, with no zoom employed. And they have real beer there, unlike the Dome. Who could ask for anything more?


Saints second baseman Justin Hall in the field. The Saints fell apart defensively, bobbling to the tune of four errors.


A Saint at the plate. The Saints would smack 13 hits before the end of the evening.


The St. Paul boys put on a mighty rally, but it wasn't quite enough to win the day. The series moves to Gary tied at one game apiece.

So, jazzed up by our hockey encounter, the Saints rally and postgame fireworks, and the coffee we consumed to keep ourselves warm in the unexpectedly cool evening, we headed back across the river to Twinsland. You know the saying that all good things come to an end? Well, this good thing ended when a guy in a big ol' steel-framed car made a left turn directly into our aluminum travel-pod.

We're all okay. Let's just get that out in the open right now.

I have never been so frightened in my (admittedly fortunate) life as I was during that split second between seeing those headlights headed way-too-directly for us and the impact itself. Then there was an instant of mind-numbing relief as I concluded that I was neither bleeding nor indeed experiencing any pain at all, followed immediately by a bolt of hysterical worry for my husband and our friend the driver, succeeded by more relief as both professed to be just fine, thanks. That's a lot of emotion for the span of about five seconds, so it was no real surprise when the nervous shaking set in and we all ended up standing on the corner comparing hand tremors.

The driver of the other car was fine, too. He was even able to drive away after the nice police officers took down our information. The aluminum travel-pod, alas, gave of its own structural integrity to protect ours and had to be left where it sat, slowly leaking fluid(s) unidentifiable by streetlight.

A few phone calls in the bright light of day turned up various minor aches and pains among our party that went unfelt in the adrenaline-soaked haze of the evening's end, but nothing requiring medical attention, thank God/dess. And a twinge here and there is good for the soul, don't you think? We shouldn't be allowed to forget our fortunate escapes too quickly.

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Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

This is how you break your fans' hearts:

1. Fall behind 5-0 in the first two innings, including a soul-shriveling grand slam in the second, after which your starting pitcher hits the showers.
2. Ride your bullpen through the middle innings while you cobble together a slow rally with a run here, a run there, until finally you lead 7-6.
3. Maintain said lead through two scoreless innings.
4. Get two outs in the top of the ninth, then surrender the tying run, followed promptly by a three-run homer that nearly punches a hole in the teflon roof of your sad excuse for a ballpark.
5. Go down meekly 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth.

At the time of this writing, the Twins have, for the second game in a row, fallen behind 5-0 only to mount a rally, and now lead 8-5 going into the 7th.

Cross your fingers!

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Stat Geek Needs a New Fix

Does anyone out there know of a site where I can get my stats sliced by game outcome? I've got an idea simmering for what should be a very interesting analysis, but I need to know things like Twins team BA and OPS in wins versus in losses to make it happen. Pitching stats, too! Drop me a comment if you know of a site that offers those splits.

(Apologies for the long hiatus--there was going to be weekend knitblogging and a Twins post today, but I've been both busy and a bit under the weather, so alas...)

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A Much Better Record

More points in favor of awarding Carlos Silva the Bright Spot in a Dismal Season Award--found this tidbit in the Star Tribune:

KANSAS CITY, MO. -- Even on a night when Carlos Silva wasn't at his best, he still showed precision control Tuesday and moved closer to a 101-year-old pitching record.

Silva gave up four runs but didn't walk a batter in 6 2/3 innings of the Twins' 7-4 victory over the Kansas City Royals. For the season, Silva has given up just eight walks in 180 1/3 innings.

In the department of walks per nine innings, Silva's number is 0.40. The American League record in that category is 0.69, set by Cy Young in 1904.

'It's not like I don't want to walk anybody, so I'm just going to throw the ball right to the middle,' Silva said. That might have been a message for the hitters. But Silva hasn't issued an unintentional walk in his past 50 innings.

'Walks will kill you, and we talk about that a lot,' Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. 'Our pitchers believe in that. Silva really believes in it, obviously.'

Can he do it?

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