Measuring Up
While a 2006-esque comeback run is quite possible, mathematically speaking, TBL is just not seeing the playoff fire in this 2007 Twins team. Even when they're winning, they just don't seem like they're prepared to do it consistently. Last year, when they won, they exuded the well-earned satisfaction of a group which has finally begun to succeed at its chosen task. This year, they simply give the appearance of being pleasantly surprised. (This, one might note, does not inspire confidence.)
Intangibles aside, what's the formula for getting to October? Feast on the bad teams, do well against the decent teams, hold your own against the good teams, and have a winning record within your division.
Though who's good, who's indifferent, and who's awful isn't exactly carved in stone yet, either, we know who's in which category now, and how the Twins have done against them so far. Let's review:
The Awful (< .450):
| Twins record | ||||
| Opponent | Record | W | L | % |
| Tampa Bay | 37-57, .394 | 3 | 4 | .429 |
| San Francisco | 39-54, .419 | -- | -- | |
| Washington | 40-55, .421 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Houston | 40-55, .421 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pittsburgh | 40-54, .426 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cincinnati | 41-55, .427 | -- | -- | -- |
| Texas | 41-54, .432 | 2 | 1 | .667 |
| Kansas City | 41-53, .436 | 2 | 3 | .400 |
| Baltimore | 42-52, .447 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Total | 11 | 10 | .524 | |
Feasting? TBL thinks not.
The Indifferent (.450 - .550):
| Twins record | ||||
| Opponent | Record | W | L | % |
| Chicago White Sox | 43-51, .457 | 7 | 5 | .583 |
| St. Louis | 43-49, .467 | -- | -- | -- |
| Florida | 45-51, .469 | 2 | 1 | .667 |
| Oakland | 45-50, .474 | 5 | 2 | .714 |
| Toronto | 46-49, .484 | 4 | 3 | .571 |
| Philadelphia | 47-48, .495 | -- | -- | -- |
| Colorado | 48-47, .505 | -- | -- | -- |
| Arizona | 50-47, .515 | -- | -- | -- |
| New York Yankees | 48-45, .516 | 2 | 5 | .286 |
| Atlanta | 51-45, .531 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Chicago Cubs | 50-44, .532 | -- | -- | -- |
| Total | 23 | 16 | .590 | |
Doing well? Quite.
The Good (> .550):
| Twins record | ||||
| Opponent | Record | W | L | % |
| New York Mets | 53-42, .558 | 2 | 1 | .667 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 54-42, .563 | -- | -- | -- |
| San Diego | 53-41, .564 | -- | -- | -- |
| Milwaukee | 54-41, .568 | 3 | 3 | .500 |
| Seattle | 53-39, .576 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Boston | 56-39, .589 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Cleveland | 56-39, .589 | 0 | 5 | .000 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 56-38, .596 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Detroit | 57-36, .613 | 5 | 7 | .417 |
| Total | 15 | 20 | .429 | |
Holding their own? Not so much.
The Division:
| Twins record | ||||
| Opponent | Record | W | L | % |
| Kansas City | 41-53, .436 | 2 | 3 | .400 |
| Chicago White Sox | 43-51, .457 | 7 | 5 | .583 |
| Cleveland | 56-39, .589 | 0 | 5 | .000 |
| Detroit | 57-36, .613 | 5 | 7 | .417 |
| Total | 14 | 20 | .418 | |
Winning in the division? Not even close.
The Twins have one of the four elements in the playoff formula, 95 games into the season. TBL just doesn't see it happening this year, folks. Which isn't to say the season is a lost cause. Much may yet be accomplished, the development of key young players being numero uno on that list.
But if you've been saving up for playoff tickets, you might want to start pondering what else you'd like to treat yourself to. TBL is considering Lasik. Or perhaps a spring training jaunt. Decisions, decisions...
Probables - Angels (56-38) at Twins (49-46)
6/20, 7:10 pm:
John Lackey, RHP (12-5, 2.98) vs Carlos Silva, RHP (7-10, 4.55)
Lackey is one of the best out there. A bad day for him is still a rough day for opposing batters. Silva is coming off of a very good outing against the A's but has been shaky overall in the last few weeks.
6/21, 6:10 pm:
Jered Weaver, RHP (6-5, 3.36) vs Boof Bonser, RHP (5-6, 4.68)
Weaver seems to have hit his stride after an injury-plagued first half. Bonser was healthy but largely unimpressive in the first half; lately, though, he has had several promising outings.
6/22: 1:10 pm:
Joe Saunders, LHP (3-0, 2.97) vs Matt Garza, RHP (1-1, 0.00)
Saunders hasn't yet pitched a full season's worth of starts in the big leagues, but he's lefthanded and breathing, which usually spells trouble for these Twins. Add to that the fact that he's been quite good in brief callups for the Angels this year, and Sunday's game should be a challenge for Minnesota hitters. Matt Garza has yet to give up an earned run in ML action this season--his one loss was on an unearned run earlier this week.
2 rejoinders:
Man, when you break the numbers down it does look depressing. I could always use my playoff ticket money for Frederic Fekkai hair products.
PS: Great Harry Potter count down clock. I decided to order it online and have it delivered tomorrow. I am at the mercy of the UPS delivery schedule.
I shall be departing shortly for a midnight release party! I hope to have it finished before Stitch-n-Pitch on Sunday. I fear for the structural integrity of my project if my mind is still in Potter-land while I knit...
Go On, Spit It Out