"Let us go forth a while, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms...
The game of ball is glorious."

--Walt Whitman

Friday, July 20, 2007

Measuring Up

While a 2006-esque comeback run is quite possible, mathematically speaking, TBL is just not seeing the playoff fire in this 2007 Twins team. Even when they're winning, they just don't seem like they're prepared to do it consistently. Last year, when they won, they exuded the well-earned satisfaction of a group which has finally begun to succeed at its chosen task. This year, they simply give the appearance of being pleasantly surprised. (This, one might note, does not inspire confidence.)

Intangibles aside, what's the formula for getting to October? Feast on the bad teams, do well against the decent teams, hold your own against the good teams, and have a winning record within your division.

Though who's good, who's indifferent, and who's awful isn't exactly carved in stone yet, either, we know who's in which category now, and how the Twins have done against them so far. Let's review:

The Awful (< .450):


Twins record
OpponentRecordWL%
Tampa Bay37-57, .39434.429
San Francisco39-54, .419--
--

Washington40-55, .42112.333
Houston40-55, .421------
Pittsburgh40-54, .426------
Cincinnati41-55, .427------
Texas41-54, .43221.667
Kansas City41-53, .4362
3
.400
Baltimore42-52, .4473
0
1.000
Total11
10
.524

Feasting? TBL thinks not.

The Indifferent (.450 - .550):

Twins record
OpponentRecordWL%
Chicago White Sox
43-51, .4577
5
.583
St. Louis43-49, .467--
--
--
Florida45-51, .4692
1
.667
Oakland45-50, .4745
2
.714
Toronto46-49, .4844
3
.571
Philadelphia47-48, .495--
--
--
Colorado48-47, .505--
--
--
Arizona50-47, .515--
--
--
New York Yankees48-45, .5162
5
.286
Atlanta51-45, .5313
0
1.000
Chicago Cubs50-44, .532--
--
--
Total23
16
.590

Doing well? Quite.

The Good (> .550):

Twins record
OpponentRecordWL%
New York Mets53-42, .5582
1
.667
Los Angeles Dodgers54-42, .563--
--
--
San Diego53-41, .564--
--
--
Milwaukee54-41, .5683
3
.500
Seattle53-39, .5763
0
1.000
Boston56-39, .5891
2
.333
Cleveland56-39, .5890
5
.000
Los Angeles Angels56-38, .5961
2
.333
Detroit57-36, .6135
7
.417
Total15
20
.429

Holding their own? Not so much.

The Division:

Twins record
OpponentRecordWL%
Kansas City41-53, .4362
3
.400
Chicago White Sox
43-51, .4577
5
.583
Cleveland56-39, .5890
5
.000
Detroit57-36, .6135
7
.417
Total14
20
.418

Winning in the division? Not even close.

The Twins have one of the four elements in the playoff formula, 95 games into the season. TBL just doesn't see it happening this year, folks. Which isn't to say the season is a lost cause. Much may yet be accomplished, the development of key young players being numero uno on that list.

But if you've been saving up for playoff tickets, you might want to start pondering what else you'd like to treat yourself to. TBL is considering Lasik. Or perhaps a spring training jaunt. Decisions, decisions...



Probables - Angels (56-38) at Twins (49-46)

6/20, 7:10 pm:
John Lackey, RHP (12-5, 2.98) vs Carlos Silva, RHP (7-10, 4.55)

Lackey is one of the best out there. A bad day for him is still a rough day for opposing batters. Silva is coming off of a very good outing against the A's but has been shaky overall in the last few weeks.

6/21, 6:10 pm:
Jered Weaver, RHP (6-5, 3.36) vs Boof Bonser, RHP (5-6, 4.68)

Weaver seems to have hit his stride after an injury-plagued first half. Bonser was healthy but largely unimpressive in the first half; lately, though, he has had several promising outings.

6/22: 1:10 pm:
Joe Saunders, LHP (3-0, 2.97) vs Matt Garza, RHP (1-1, 0.00)

Saunders hasn't yet pitched a full season's worth of starts in the big leagues, but he's lefthanded and breathing, which usually spells trouble for these Twins. Add to that the fact that he's been quite good in brief callups for the Angels this year, and Sunday's game should be a challenge for Minnesota hitters. Matt Garza has yet to give up an earned run in ML action this season--his one loss was on an unearned run earlier this week.

2 rejoinders:

Baseball_Lipgloss sounded off...

Man, when you break the numbers down it does look depressing. I could always use my playoff ticket money for Frederic Fekkai hair products.

PS: Great Harry Potter count down clock. I decided to order it online and have it delivered tomorrow. I am at the mercy of the UPS delivery schedule.

Third Base Line sounded off...

I shall be departing shortly for a midnight release party! I hope to have it finished before Stitch-n-Pitch on Sunday. I fear for the structural integrity of my project if my mind is still in Potter-land while I knit...